Dive Brief:
- Heat pump shipments reached near-record highs in July, representing close to half of all HVAC units shipped, with technology advancements in electric water heaters also driving long-term growth, according to AHRI’s equipment shipment data report, released earlier this month.
- Cooling shipments have risen year over year for six consecutive months, AHRI says. In July, heat pump shipments rose 17.6%, trailing only July 2024 for the most heat pumps shipped during the month. Electric water heaters also saw a boost, outselling gas units by about 52,000 units, while slightly down 3.9% year over year.
- The data shows a clear longer-term trend toward electrification, the report says, with electric water heater shipments up 23% since July 2016. Heat pump shipments were up near 77% in that time.
Dive Insight:
Commercial heat pump water heater, or CHPWH, technology has improved significantly in the past few years, with some manufacturers starting to produce central HPWHs and others already in the market introducing new products, storage configurations, designs and technology, according to a report by the Advanced Water Heating Initiative.
The market for small CHPWHs is also expanding from a base in the multifamily sector to include commercial kitchens and other small commercial applications, AWHI says in its report. Manufacturers and system providers are also continuing to optimize thermal storage tanks and piping configurations as well as responding to market demand for load shifting by adding communication capabilities that allow operators to shed periods of operation, according to AWHI.
Although HPWHs lost their federal tax credits at the end of 2025 — immediately reducing demand for the units — new IECC building codes and other mandates for all-electric buildings or low-GWP refrigerants in states like New York should help to continue sales growing, AWHI says.
Over the past 10 years, heat pump shipments grew 172.7%, compared to an 80% increase for combined AC-heat pumps and a 40% increase in AC-only units, according to AHRI’s report. From 2022 to 2026, heat pumps accounted for more than 40% of July’s combined AC and heat pump shipment totals.
Despite the growth, other types of equipment are still being ordered and used, ACHR News reported.
Gas furnace shipments increased 60% since July 2010 and 15.3% since July 2016, with this year the fourth-highest July gas-unit shipment total since AHRI began reporting.
“Heat pumps are clearly gaining ground, but gas furnaces remain a steadfast category,” ACHR reported.
