Offices could start emptying out as employers pause return-to-work policies in response to inflated gas prices from the Iran conflict, say executives at workplace strategy firm Korn Ferry.
The average cost of a gallon of gas in the United States as of March 19 was $3.88, up from $2.93 a month earlier, according to AAA.
“With … the cost of filling up a tank exceeding $50, the return-to-office debate appears to be heating up again,” Korn Ferry says in an article on its website.
“It puts the boss in a tough spot,” Dennis Deans, global human resources business partner at Korn Ferry, says in the article.
Even if the Iran conflict were to end sooner rather than later, gas prices won’t come down until the fall, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for gas-saving app GasBuddy, said in a post on X. “Seasonal factors will prevent a full drop back down.”
Gas prices tend to stay higher in summer months in part because of an Environmental Protection Agency requirement for refineries to produce what’s known as high-ozone summer-season gasoline, which evaporates less when temperatures are high.
“EPA regulates the [Reid Vapor Pressure] of gasoline sold at retail stations during the summer high ozone season (‘summer season’) to reduce evaporative emissions of volatile organic compounds from gasoline that are a major contributor to ground-level ozone (i.e., smog) and diminish the effects of ozone-related health problems,” the agency says.
“This blend is more expensive to make and will cost travelers extra at the pump,” a Forbes article says. “Gas prices also are known to surge in the spring and summer when more people are traveling.”
Should the conflict persist, employees with long commutes could push back on coming into the office. “Is a job worthwhile if the commute is two hours and calls for pricey trips to the pump?” the Korn Ferry article says.
“That equation needs to work for both employers and employees,” Maria Amato, a senior client partner at Korn Ferry, says in the article.
If workers are already on a hybrid schedule, managers can reconsider which days are critical for in-office work, such as meeting days and client lunches, and plan around them, with the understanding that once gas prices ease, the office will return to the previous schedule, the Korn Ferry executives say.
“This is a matter of being really practical in today’s environment, but setting long-term expectations,” says Deans.
The International Energy Agency, a Paris-based public interest group that’s part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is calling for a return to work-from-home flexibility as its first recommendation until oil shocks from the conflict subside. “Work from home … displaces oil use from commuting, particularly where jobs are suitable for remote work,” it says.
