As parts of the United States bake under the first heat wave of summer, the federal government has warned consumers in many regions to brace for higher power bills over the next few months.
“From June through September, residential customers in the United States can expect average monthly electricity bills of $178, a slight increase from last summer’s average of $173,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Monday.
The largest increase will hit New England, where the average monthly bill is expected to rise $13 from last summer, to $193 a month. The Pacific and Mountain regions could see bills decline slightly, according to EIA’s analysis.
EIA said it based its bill analysis on expectations for a “slight decrease in consumption, driven by cooler forecast summer temperatures relative to last summer.” But other experts say the federal government’s energy data arm is being optimistic.
EIA’s projections “are very conservative and assume temperatures about the same,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.
But, Wolfe added, “the issue is not temperatures as much as increasing prices.”
Residential electricity prices across the U.S. will average 17 cents/kWh in 2025, rising to 17.6 cents/kWh in 2026, according to EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Prices averaged 16 cents/kWh in 2023.
Consumers “will be hit with yet another year of record high prices for home cooling as the average cost of electricity is projected to reach $784, up 6.2 percent from $737 last year,” according to NAEDA’s most recent analysis for summer 2025. That works out to about $196 a month across a four-month period.
Temperatures are increasing, “reflecting the continuing impact of climate change and requiring additional energy to cool indoor spaces,” NAEDA said, and the cost of electricity is rising faster than the average rate of inflation.
Adjusted for inflation, consumers will pay about 4.3% more for power this summer, compared with 2024, the group said.
According to NASA, 2024 was the hottest summer on record. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is anticipating hotter-than-average temperatures this summer.
“This summer could also be record breaking,” NAEDA said.
Indeed, the U.S. is currently in the midst of an early-summer heat wave that has utilities and grid operators in the Northeast calling for energy conservation.
Consolidated Edison in New York issued multiple conservation calls and on Tuesday said it had restored service to more than 34,700 customers in the Bronx since the heat wave began.
“The heat, humidity and customers’ need to run their air conditioners to stay comfortable place stress on electric delivery equipment,” the utility said. “The company asks customers to refrain from using intensive appliances such as washers, dryers, and microwaves during peak hours.”
ISO New England on Monday said it issued a “precautionary alert as hot, humid weather across the region could lead to tight operating conditions on Tuesday,” but the grid operator also noted, “this is not a system emergency.”
“The Northeast is likely to experience higher-than-normal heat through June and the rest of the summer — a trend that can increase the risk of heat-related illness, higher energy use and power outages,” New Jersey’s PSE&G said in a Friday statement.
Looking past the immediate heat wave, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. expects all regions to have sufficient resources to avoid blackouts under normal operating conditions this summer. But some grids may face energy supply shortfall risks during periods of extreme heat, according to the 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment published in May.
EIA said it is anticipating temperatures will be slightly cooler this summer, amounting to about a 1% decline in total cooling degree days compared with summer 2024. “The cooler expected weather contributes to slightly less U.S. residential summer electricity consumption, down less than 1% compared with last summer,” EIA said.
But EIA also noted that weather “remains the main source of uncertainty in our forecasts ... if temperatures end up much hotter than expected, households are likely to face higher-than-expected increases in electricity bills, especially in the southern states.”
